Comments on: Campaigns versus personal experience

By: Leopold

Leopold — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 00:32:33 +0000

A curious difference between Newspoll and ACN on this topic - 33% of Newspoll respondents reckon they are worse off under WorkChoices. And ‘a lot worse off’ is rising in Newspoll, while in ACN the overall figure ‘worse off’ is falling.

The age distribution is however interesting - 44% of those under 35 (who vote Labor anyway) while only about 25% of those in older age groups. People aged over 35 are also more likely to believe the changes are good for jobs and the economy, particularly the 35-49 age group.

Am I right in thinking 35-49 is usually the key swing demographic?

By: Andrew Norton

Andrew Norton — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 04:08:30 +0000

Rajat - I had a post on this topic.

By: Rajat Sood

Rajat Sood — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 01:54:57 +0000

But isn’t it typically the case that most people vote on the basis of hip pocket or security reasons rather than on the basis of principle? Is there solid evidence of an “issue cycle” that is distinct from the economic cycle?

By: Fred Argy

Fred Argy — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 01:32:25 +0000

You are very clinical in your anlaysis of polls, Andrew. Well done.

I never expected Work Choices to affect more than 10 to 15% of workers - at least at least at this stage of the economic cycle. Even 21% saying they will be worse off seems surprisingly high - but it is declining, as you say.

I think the message from the iR polls is that people do care a great deal about a law that threatens their relatives or friends or their sense of ‘fairness’ - even when they themselves do not expect to be worse off. It could affect their vote - unless Howard can convince them that their jobs are at risk.

By: Andrew Norton

Andrew Norton — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 12:51:30 +0000

Russell - Real wages dropping during recessions is not a bad thing in a macroeconomic sense, since that will help limit the increase in unemployment. But of course the individuals involved may not see it that way.

By: Russell

Russell — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 11:42:34 +0000

“people can decide for themselves from their general experience” - and pity those under 30 who’ve never seen a recession. Perhaps it’s they who are feeling increasingly relaxed and comfortable with Workchoices. The lesson is ahead of them.