Comments on: A tale of two Oppositions

By: Pedro S

Pedro S — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 08:09:33 +0000

Andrew, thanks for posting that link. That paper is very interesting.

It makes you wonder if a One Nation like party would have a real go at getting a substantial vote in Australia.

By: Boris

Boris — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:32:59 +0000

The situations is not too dissimilar to the case where Tony Blair one his first term. Tories have overstayed in power for too long (even though they changed leader) by the previous election, but Labor was still feared and was narrowly defeated. This time round Blair presented a more credible alternative and trashed Tories in a landslide that kept them going for 10 years and counting. Unfortunately Rudd is no Tony Blair, but he is certainly presenting a plausible, although not exciting, alternative.

By: Boris

Boris — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:28:24 +0000

“And no, I am not voting this time round”

You prefer to pay a fine?

By: Sacha

Sacha — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 12:32:31 +0000

The “oppositions looking credible” is really important. Debnam didn’t look credible but Rudd does.

By: Andrew Norton

Andrew Norton — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 23:33:06 +0000

Pedro - Interestingly, there is research suggesting that the views of Labor candidates are further away from those of Labor voters and the general population than than it the case for Liberal candidates.

However, arguably the issue cycle has been against the Liberals for some time and the 2004 victory was a flukish counter-cyclical outcome.

By: Pedro S

Pedro S — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 22:43:48 +0000

JC has it. Rudd may be getting a poisoned chalice.

The Liberals just need to keep it together in opposition and not have really bad leaders like Crean or Latham. They should be able to do this. Both Costello and Turnbull, Turnbull especially, very impressive.

There is another explanation for the first question Andrew asked, and that is that the reason the Liberals are losing is because Liberal ideology is further away from general consensus that Labor ideology is.

By: Jc

Jc — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 16:12:03 +0000

“You’ve just said, correctly, that Labour is seen as a credible but unexciting alternative - hardly “Ruddmania”.”

Well there kind of is. No great issue there as the people want change at the top and the coalition wasn’t prepared to offer that. Tough titties John

“How likely is it, then, that anyone’s expectations of it are inflated?”

Very much so. People still rate the coaltion as good economic managers and this still comes out being one of the most important factors in the polls. However both parties score high enough for here it not to effect the current trend to Lab.

However. this is dangerous time to anyone, Lab or lib to be taking over the big job. You could actually be buying the economy at the top. Throw in a good slowdown and jobless creep up and you have a real issue on your hands. Throw in a few policy mistakes (even by the RBA) and the we begin to see dead bodies on the street in the mortgage belt and the sky turns grey.

Rudd will win this election, but the marginal support is soft especially if people begin to recall the good times.

You always want to be buying low and selling high in trading. Politics ain’t that much different.

By: Jc

Jc — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 15:59:36 +0000

Sorry Andrew:

It’s tiring having to read macho chest pounding on every single thread that “mine is bigger than yours”. it kinda feels a littlel creepy.

By: Spiros

Spiros — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:32:52 +0000

JC, maaate, what can I say?

Mate, look at the scoreboard.

Ciao.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 08:37:14 +0000

You know spiros, you really are a [civility censorship - AN]. You come onto a site and try taunt people. You’re obviously a huge “tifoso” for your “soccer team”: well and good, but there are people on the other side that don’t need to be told how great your side is and how many seats your team is going to win and their’s lose on every thread as some sort of macho thing. You do it here and doing it at harry’s site too. Get a life.