Comments on: Is the Howard government running against the issue cycle? http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/ Observations from Carlton's Lone Classical Liberal Fri, 05 Sep 2008 05:20:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Tony Hughes http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10437 Tony Hughes Sun, 25 Nov 2007 03:45:45 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10437 I think Peter Costello read my post and realized he faced a lost cause :-) I think Peter Costello read my post and realized he faced a lost cause :-)

]]> By: Tony Hughes http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10428 Tony Hughes Sun, 25 Nov 2007 01:57:26 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10428 I disagree that an ageing population benefits the Libs. The point is that those who are old enough to have voted for Menzies view the Coalition as, like, the natural party of government in Australia. Those who aren't, who voted for Whitlam and then Fraser and then Hawke, aren't as rusted on as the older generation. This means that the 50-somethings are less likely than the 65-pluses to overwhelmingly support the Libs even as they start to retire. I think a key question for the Libs is leadership and personnel. Costello is tainted pretty badly because of his unwillingness to challenge Howard. I can imagine Rudd goading him about being a spineless wimp. Costello thinks he's the Paul Keating of the 21st century but he lacks the backbone. Abbott and Downer are unelectable. I think Turnbull is a sensible choice for them or a dark horse like Julie Bishop. My tip is that Turnbull will move over to Berowra, pushing Ruddock into retirement at the next election. Turnbull will thus have a safe seat to fight as leader. They have to clear out the dead wood from safe seats. Downer should go, Ruddock, Costello etc. and get some smart, young, right leaning, populist, centrists in these types of seats. The most stupid aspect of the Libs campaign, I think, was the demonization of the unions. You'd have to have the pre-accord world in the forefront of your mind to believe that a vote for Labor is a vote for union domination. Suggesting that Julia Gillard is a "fanatic" was the 2007 version of Latham's school hitlist. Pure class warfare. People remember Hawke, Keating, Bracks, Carr, Rann, Beattie, not Norm Gallagher and Jack Lang. Howard's legacy is pretty barren. GST was a good step and he could have been proud of IR if not for Work Choices. The right will appreciate that he tried to push the IR agenda further but normal people will resent it. The right will, in the long run, be disappointed in two things, though. The growth in middle class welfare under Howard - 30% rebates do nothing other than raise prices and corporate profits and increase government dependency. I hope Rudd stops using these. The second thing is the Future Fund. The government should never be the biggest single stock market investor in society. Greenspan was right when he criticized Clinton for doing the same thing. This is an abomination that any true free marketeer should reject out of hand. Balanced budgets were an achievement but massive unending surpluses are just stupid. The measure of Howard's "economic management" legacy should be how well the economy weathers its first new crisis. If Australia sails through a Chinese recession without anything bad happening, this will be a great testament to Howard. That Australia did so well in 2001, though, was because of Hawke/Keating's legacy and the entry of China into the WTO, not any amazing action taken by Howard. The last point I want to make is that the Libs always turn on their leaders which must be difficult for Howard to swallow. Howard will never appear with Fraser or Hewson or Costello at future Liberal launches the way Whitlam, Hawke and Keating did recently. Labor doesn't have to write a negative history of the Howard years - the Libs will do that perfectly well on their own. I disagree that an ageing population benefits the Libs. The point is that those who are old enough to have voted for Menzies view the Coalition as, like, the natural party of government in Australia. Those who aren’t, who voted for Whitlam and then Fraser and then Hawke, aren’t as rusted on as the older generation. This means that the 50-somethings are less likely than the 65-pluses to overwhelmingly support the Libs even as they start to retire.

I think a key question for the Libs is leadership and personnel. Costello is tainted pretty badly because of his unwillingness to challenge Howard. I can imagine Rudd goading him about being a spineless wimp. Costello thinks he’s the Paul Keating of the 21st century but he lacks the backbone. Abbott and Downer are unelectable. I think Turnbull is a sensible choice for them or a dark horse like Julie Bishop. My tip is that Turnbull will move over to Berowra, pushing Ruddock into retirement at the next election. Turnbull will thus have a safe seat to fight as leader. They have to clear out the dead wood from safe seats. Downer should go, Ruddock, Costello etc. and get some smart, young, right leaning, populist, centrists in these types of seats.

The most stupid aspect of the Libs campaign, I think, was the demonization of the unions. You’d have to have the pre-accord world in the forefront of your mind to believe that a vote for Labor is a vote for union domination. Suggesting that Julia Gillard is a “fanatic” was the 2007 version of Latham’s school hitlist. Pure class warfare. People remember Hawke, Keating, Bracks, Carr, Rann, Beattie, not Norm Gallagher and Jack Lang.

Howard’s legacy is pretty barren. GST was a good step and he could have been proud of IR if not for Work Choices. The right will appreciate that he tried to push the IR agenda further but normal people will resent it. The right will, in the long run, be disappointed in two things, though. The growth in middle class welfare under Howard - 30% rebates do nothing other than raise prices and corporate profits and increase government dependency. I hope Rudd stops using these.

The second thing is the Future Fund. The government should never be the biggest single stock market investor in society. Greenspan was right when he criticized Clinton for doing the same thing. This is an abomination that any true free marketeer should reject out of hand. Balanced budgets were an achievement but massive unending surpluses are just stupid.

The measure of Howard’s “economic management” legacy should be how well the economy weathers its first new crisis. If Australia sails through a Chinese recession without anything bad happening, this will be a great testament to Howard. That Australia did so well in 2001, though, was because of Hawke/Keating’s legacy and the entry of China into the WTO, not any amazing action taken by Howard.

The last point I want to make is that the Libs always turn on their leaders which must be difficult for Howard to swallow. Howard will never appear with Fraser or Hewson or Costello at future Liberal launches the way Whitlam, Hawke and Keating did recently. Labor doesn’t have to write a negative history of the Howard years - the Libs will do that perfectly well on their own.

]]> By: Andrew E http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10443 Andrew E Thu, 22 Nov 2007 02:05:08 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10443 The next wave of the political cycle will involve how Rudd transforms the way the country is governed. - There will be a change in federal-state relations, and hopefully a realignment whereby the government responsible for a certain area of policy has to raise the taxes to pay for that policy, and thus wears political responsibility for both taxation and execution. Several Labor governments will fall apart under the sheer weight of this realignment. Think about it: if you're an experienced State bureaucrat/staffer, aren't you burnishing your CV about now and looking at real estate north of the Lake? - The future of Liberals depends upon their reaction to this. They need to harvest dissatisfaction and make the case that they would make things not just different, but better. They will spend their first term in denial, changing superficial things and presenting a lacklustre back-to-the-future agenda that will see voters reward Labor with a landslide. To claim that the Coalition will spring back into office in 2010 is based on wishful thinking, nothing more. - Barry O'Farrell has to do the hard yards that Greiner did by reforming the Liberal Party, getting rid of the uglies before he can become Premier - and once he does so he'll be unbeatable, as he has better political sense than Greiner. - Spiros: before 1996 Geoff Prosser was Shadow Finance Minister. It is fair to say that the impact of Prosser on the Howard government has been slight. I suspect the same will apply to Carr in industry policy. No election has ever been won or lost on industry policy, and if there is such a role as Minister For Nothing In Particular then Carr most likely to get that. Not much "hot damn!" in that, but Labor governments tend to be cautious in their first terms. Liberal oppositions have spent a decade looking for "hot damn!" moments while other vote-changing issues have passed them by. The next wave of the political cycle will involve how Rudd transforms the way the country is governed.
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There will be a change in federal-state relations, and hopefully a realignment whereby the government responsible for a certain area of policy has to raise the taxes to pay for that policy, and thus wears political responsibility for both taxation and execution. Several Labor governments will fall apart under the sheer weight of this realignment. Think about it: if you’re an experienced State bureaucrat/staffer, aren’t you burnishing your CV about now and looking at real estate north of the Lake?
-
The future of Liberals depends upon their reaction to this. They need to harvest dissatisfaction and make the case that they would make things not just different, but better. They will spend their first term in denial, changing superficial things and presenting a lacklustre back-to-the-future agenda that will see voters reward Labor with a landslide. To claim that the Coalition will spring back into office in 2010 is based on wishful thinking, nothing more.
-
Barry O’Farrell has to do the hard yards that Greiner did by reforming the Liberal Party, getting rid of the uglies before he can become Premier - and once he does so he’ll be unbeatable, as he has better political sense than Greiner.
-
Spiros: before 1996 Geoff Prosser was Shadow Finance Minister. It is fair to say that the impact of Prosser on the Howard government has been slight. I suspect the same will apply to Carr in industry policy. No election has ever been won or lost on industry policy, and if there is such a role as Minister For Nothing In Particular then Carr most likely to get that. Not much “hot damn!” in that, but Labor governments tend to be cautious in their first terms. Liberal oppositions have spent a decade looking for “hot damn!” moments while other vote-changing issues have passed them by.

]]> By: Jc http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10430 Jc Wed, 21 Nov 2007 17:01:20 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10430 You're making it sound like you yearn for the greek socialist party where hating Amerrika is the common excuse for being one of the poorest nations in Europe. Let's not try to jump that hurdle please. LOL. I woudn't advertise the slater G thing, Spiros as its not exactly the the sorta swamp you wanna aspire to. LOL. You’re making it sound like you yearn for the greek socialist party where hating Amerrika is the common excuse for being one of the poorest nations in Europe. Let’s not try to jump that hurdle please. LOL.

I woudn’t advertise the slater G thing, Spiros as its not exactly the the sorta swamp you wanna aspire to. LOL.

]]> By: Spiros http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10436 Spiros Wed, 21 Nov 2007 06:31:38 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10436 Congratulations JC. You've worked your way through the 5 stages of grief and have now come to Acceptance. "I guess this is their time." You bet your libertarian ass it is. It's going to be an interesting ride. I think Julia will be a very interesting Deputy PM. Our first ever Deputy PM who was president of AUS and a partner at Slater & Gordon! Hot damn this is going to be good! But it's not just Julia. Our water policy and infrastructure will be in the hands of Anthony Albanese, who is seriously left wing. Then there's industry policy under Kim Carr. Happy voting. Congratulations JC. You’ve worked your way through the 5 stages of grief and have now come to Acceptance.

“I guess this is their time.”

You bet your libertarian ass it is.

It’s going to be an interesting ride. I think Julia will be a very interesting Deputy PM. Our first ever Deputy PM who was president of AUS and a partner at Slater & Gordon! Hot damn this is going to be good!

But it’s not just Julia. Our water policy and infrastructure will be in the hands of Anthony Albanese, who is seriously left wing. Then there’s industry policy under Kim Carr.

Happy voting.

]]> By: Jc http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10435 Jc Wed, 21 Nov 2007 03:17:43 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10435 David Libertaians like me are like battered wives going back for more when it comes to the libs. I cringe at 90% of what they do, but I would shiver to death thinking what Rudd's team will be up to... he's just one guy. My concern for labor laws is the unfair dismissal laws, Dave. That really concerns me. If they left that alone I really don't much mind seeing the libs have a 9 year holiday. The other side deserves their time in office and I guess this is their time. David

Libertaians like me are like battered wives going back for more when it comes to the libs. I cringe at 90% of what they do, but I would shiver to death thinking what Rudd’s team will be up to… he’s just one guy.

My concern for labor laws is the unfair dismissal laws, Dave. That really concerns me. If they left that alone I really don’t much mind seeing the libs have a 9 year holiday.

The other side deserves their time in office and I guess this is their time.

]]> By: Andrew Norton http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10434 Andrew Norton Wed, 21 Nov 2007 02:27:37 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10434 Leon - Possibly, but I put this issue in the what-ifs because there is no clear evidence supporting it. There has been no Costello leadership challenge because Howard's personal polling has been (and still is) respectable and much better than Costello's. On the other hand, leaders can often improve their ratings as people come to know them better, Rudd being a spectacular recent example. Leon - Possibly, but I put this issue in the what-ifs because there is no clear evidence supporting it. There has been no Costello leadership challenge because Howard’s personal polling has been (and still is) respectable and much better than Costello’s. On the other hand, leaders can often improve their ratings as people come to know them better, Rudd being a spectacular recent example.

]]> By: David Rubie http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10433 David Rubie Wed, 21 Nov 2007 01:39:51 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10433 Our system doesn't work with rubbish oppositions JC. The liberals in NSW still teeter on farce and let the Labor government get away with being the laziest and most incompetent currently in office. A vindictive Debnam yesterday, picking the worst time possible to dump on federal Liberal policy over Kyoto for example. O'Farrell has improved their delivery immeasurably over the woeful state election campaign. As for suspect front benches, Rudd hasn't promised anyone a job other than Gillard/Swan/himself. Surely there'd be some grumbles of dismissive approval if Tanner found himself a major role. I can't see the proposed changes to Workchoices (amounting to minor edge fiddling) causing a recession, since Workchoices has had no measurable effect so far anyway. Howard is far from perfect - I thought small government/low tax proponents would privately be relieved his end is near in that it finally clears the air for a reasonable debate within Liberal circles of what the party really stands for. Our system doesn’t work with rubbish oppositions JC. The liberals in NSW still teeter on farce and let the Labor government get away with being the laziest and most incompetent currently in office. A vindictive Debnam yesterday, picking the worst time possible to dump on federal Liberal policy over Kyoto for example. O’Farrell has improved their delivery immeasurably over the woeful state election campaign.

As for suspect front benches, Rudd hasn’t promised anyone a job other than Gillard/Swan/himself. Surely there’d be some grumbles of dismissive approval if Tanner found himself a major role.

I can’t see the proposed changes to Workchoices (amounting to minor edge fiddling) causing a recession, since Workchoices has had no measurable effect so far anyway. Howard is far from perfect - I thought small government/low tax proponents would privately be relieved his end is near in that it finally clears the air for a reasonable debate within Liberal circles of what the party really stands for.

]]> By: JC http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10432 JC Wed, 21 Nov 2007 01:20:08 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10432 But David actually offer some very good points here. 1. The front bench of the labor party is quite suspect. 2. The economcy could be peaking and you don't want to buy s stock at the top of the market. 3. The recession would be a fully owned subsidary of the ALP 4. Rolling back workchoices and a recession would quickly put the unemployment rate back to 8% Yep , David's quite right. But David actually offer some very good points here.

1. The front bench of the labor party is quite suspect.

2. The economcy could be peaking and you don’t want to buy s stock at the top of the market.

3. The recession would be a fully owned subsidary of the ALP

4. Rolling back workchoices and a recession would quickly put the unemployment rate back to 8%

Yep , David’s quite right.

]]> By: JC http://andrewnorton.info/2007/11/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10429 JC Wed, 21 Nov 2007 01:16:25 +0000 http://andrewnorton.info/blog/2007/11/20/is-the-howard-government-running-against-the-issue-cycle/#comment-10429 Nice to see you're giving the LIbs free advice, Dave. Nice to see you’re giving the LIbs free advice, Dave.

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