Comments on: Demographic problems for the Liberals

By: JM

JM — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 09:32:01 +0000

John: “the memory of Whitlam is what will keep the baby-boomers sceptical about Labor”

It’s been over 30 years since Whitlam. Anyone inclined to vote Labor who is still put off following Hawke, Keating and now Rudd, is pretty much put off for good - they’re already a rusted on Coalition voter.

By: John Greenfield

John Greenfield — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 05:34:51 +0000

As for Whitlam. ROFL. If anything, the memory of Whitlam is what will keep the baby-boomers sceptical about Labor. Remember they are the ones who actually remember the disaster wrought by Gough, Jim, and the gang.

Also, so long as our immigration program remains skewed in favour of skilled migrants - a big question mark whenever Labor is in power - then support for socialism will decline no matter how many Luvvie baby-boomers continue into their dotage.

By: Leon

Leon — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 07:22:21 +0000

How does your demographic theory work with the “battlers” phenomenon? Was it merely transitory?

By: Larvatus Prodeo

Larvatus Prodeo — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 02:16:22 +0000

Baby boomers and Coalition electoral disadvantage…

There’s a very interesting analysis of Newspoll voting intention data from 1987 to 2007 by Macquarie Uni Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics Ian Watson at Australian Policy Online. After crunching the numbers, Watson argues that the agein…

By: Russell

Russell — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 01:04:26 +0000

So I can live in hope that John Pilger will become President of our republic ?

By: Mark Richardson

Mark Richardson — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 00:10:22 +0000

Andrew, your argument about age cohorts affecting the electoral prospects of the Liberal Party is an interesting one. I would have thought, though, that the more important demographic issue facing the Liberals was connected to ethnicity rather than age.

If you look at Melbourne, for instance, the electoral map correlates very closely to the map showing percentages of the population born overseas. In Australia there is no electorate in which more than 22% of the population was born overseas which voted Liberal at the last election. 32 of the 33 electorates with the lowest proportion of English speakers voted Labor.

The Liberals are, rightly or wrongly, perceived to be the party of insiders and so don’t catch much of the immigrant vote, regardless of how much support they give to open borders or to overseas students. There is American research, too, showing second generation immigrants moving further to the left rather than assimilating and moving politically to the right.

With both major parties committed to mass immigration, it will become more difficult for the Liberals to win what were once marginal seats in Sydney and Melbourne.

By: Andrew Norton

Andrew Norton — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:33:55 +0000

DD - People may get more conservative with age in some respects at they get older, but this work is looking at party allegiances, which can combine with a variety of personal perspectives. I think it is pretty clearly showing a cohort effect at work. Watson’s point is that people in their 50s were much more Coalition-oriented in the past than they are now, and we can track them back through their younger ages. I would predict that the same group will continue with their political views into their 60s and 70s. Like other old people, they are stuck in their habits.

By: derrida derider

derrida derider — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:27:36 +0000

You’re assuming cohort rather than age effects dominate, but notoriously people get more conservative as they get older. Just because the baby boomers were lefties in their youth doesn’t mean they will be in their dotage (as an unrepentant centre-lefty, more’s the pity from my POV).

If in fact the age effect dominates then as the median age of voters rises with population aging we’ll see more conservatism. Actually I think that’s the only serious threat to growth in living standards from population aging - the old are not fond of creative destruction, so innovation may slow.

Politically it’s a threat to social and economic liberals and democratic socialists alike. But over the long run, party policies and images usually follow where the median voter goes, so the long run partisan effects (as distinct from policy effects) are negligible whether the population moves left or right.