Do classical liberals and social democrats study different things?

The political identity survey included a question that asked graduates and uni students about their major field of study. The idea was to see whether there were significant ideology-related differences in their academic backgrounds.

There were quite a variety of responses, but I have tried to classify them into the following categories: arts, business, economics, law, science and engineering, and what I called ‘social’ degrees, which included education, the health professions, and social work. People who put two major fields of study were sometimes counted twice, if they fitted more than one of my categories. The results for classical liberals (205 respondents) and social democrats (308 respondents) are below.

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Did I make a ‘not well supported generally’ argument?

In the Graduate Pathways Survey report, authors Hamish Coates and Daniel Edwards say:

…some commentators on graduate supply and workforce projections argue that the solutions to filling the skills gaps are not in boosting the training effort in Australia, but instead making sure all those who have university qualifications are utilising their skills sufficiently. Research by Norton (2007) indicates that a large number of graduates in Australia are not currently employed in ‘graduate occupations’. Norton argues that if these people’s skills were utilised, there would be no shortfall in highly skilled workers in most occupations in Australia. While this argument relating to the ‘over-qualification’ of the Australian population is not well supported generally, it is an issue of relevance that is addressed in this research project. (emphasis added)

If by ‘not well supported’ they mean that not many other people argue this they are right, but this is mainly because there is little overlap between the labour market literature and the higher education policy literature. Unfortunately, I pretty much have the issue of how we allocate university places between disciplines to myself. The only two other positions in the debate are what happens politically – ad hoc allocations of new places if employers scream loudly enough – and the position adopted by Bob Birrell and the Bradley report, which is to flood the labour market with graduates and hope that the sheer numbers make skills shortages unlikely.
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The benefits of paid work while studying

I have in the past been sceptical of claims that encouraging students to spend fewer hours in paid work is a worthwhile public policy goal. Recent research supports this scepticism.

The most detailed findings are from the Graduate Pathways Survey. Key points:

* no relationship between paid work and average overall grade
* working for pay during study is positively related to employment after graduation
* mean satisfaction score for those not working was 62 – the same as those working between 11 and 20 hours
* developmental outcomes were enhanced through paid work – an increase from 42 to 46 on the 100-point scale

Developmental questions related to understanding people of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, solving complex, real-world problems, developing a personal code of values and ethics, contributing to the welfare of your community, developing general industry awareness and understanding different social contexts.

As in previous research, the negatives only develop with very long hours at paid work, well beyond what most full-time undergraduates are doing. Key points:
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Low SES not a disadvantage at uni

Commenter Fitzroyalty asks whether there is recent data on low SES completions and drop-outs. In general, recent research gives cause for optimism that once low SES students reach university their SES status is not of itself (on average) a negative factor affecting outcomes.

This report based on Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth did find some slightly lower projected completion rates for the children of low education or occupation parents, but that these differences were not statistically significant after controlling for ENTER. In other words, low SES had done all the damage it was going to do at school, and did not do more damage at university.

The 2008 report of the Australian Survey of Student Engagement, released a week or two ago, found that low SES students had very similar rates of considering dropping out (34.6%) to all Australian students (33.1%). The grade point average of low SES students (71.6%) was virtually the same as all Australian students (71.9%).
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Do Group of Eight graduates earn more?, part 2

In March, I reported academic research showing that employers appeared unwilling to pay premium salaries for graduates who had been to Group of Eight universities.

Another report
released this week, 2008 Graduate Pathways Survey: Graduates’ education and employment outcomes five years after completion of a bachelor degree at an Australian university, gives some grounds for thinking that as graduates acquire work experience those from Group of Eight universities receive larger salary increases. The report is the first from the Graduate Pathways Survey, which in this case retrospectively asked people who completed their courses in 2002 about their progress since then.

It found that:

Go8 graduates tended to see the largest steady increase in salary over five years from $35,000 (2003 dollars) to $63,000 – an 80 per cent increase. ATN graduates salaries increased from $42,000 (2003 dollars) to $64,000 (60%). IRU [Innovative Research Universities, eg Murdoch, La Trobe, James Cook], regional and metropolitan university graduates’ salaries increased at slightly lower rates to reach $56,000 (up 56%), $61,000 (up 51%) and $60,000 (up 54%) respectively.

Australian Technology Network (ATN) universities are, however, still slightly ahead in absolute terms.

Unfortunately, there is no statistical analysis in this report to see whether there is a distinct Group of Eight effect, or whether (as is possible) this is a function of other labour market characteristics of the graduates. Presumably the age and discipline mix of graduates will affect the scope for rapid salary increases. And of course even a finding that controlling for these things there is a Group of Eight effect, it does not show that attending a Group of Eight university was a causal factor, given the higher prior average academic ability of these students.

Why focus only on the lowest 25% of postcodes?

Yesterday my U of M boss, Glyn Davis, gave a speech on the difficulties in reaching the government’s target of 20% of all higher education enrolments being from a low socieonomic status background. The current definition of ‘low SES’ is living in the lowest 25% of postcodes according to the ABS index of education and occupation.

It is well established that socieconomic differences in school results are the major reason why low SES students are ‘under-represented’ at university. However, it was not until I recently analysed 2008 Victorian Year 12 results that I realised that lowest 25% seems like an inappropriately narrow target group. As the figure below shows, while students living in the lowest 10% of postcodes are clearly the weakest performers, those in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th deciles have very similar (and not very good) school results). Very few receive ENTER scores in the 90s, and nearly half have ENTER scores below 50. While results trend upwards after the 5th decile, it is only a modest exaggeration to say that we really have the top 20% and the rest.

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Public divided on tax and spend

The first of the Budget tax and spend polls have been released, but it is hard to get a clear reading on whether the long-term trend towards support for more taxing and spending is easing or reversing.

In a Newspoll published in The Australian, the public is almost equally divided between saying scheduled tax cuts should go ahead (44%) or cancelled to reduce the deficit (47%). The 44% saying go ahead is slightly below the 49% who nearly 12 months ago wanted last year’s tax cuts to go ahead, but the trade-off posed has changed completely: last year the stated risk was higher inflation and interest rates (it seems so long ago…), this year the risk is making the budget deficit even larger. In both cases, however, just under half wanted tax cuts despite a risk of negative consequences later on.

As reported at Pollytics blog, the Essential Report survey found that, when given a choice between reducing the deficit and increasing taxes on high income earners and decreasing spending, 49% went for higher taxes and 42% for less spending.

If we assume that higher taxes and cancelling tax cuts are much the same thing, it seems like pro-tax views are still favoured by more people than the lower-tax perspective. However, the role of deficits in structuring opinion makes it hard to see where the underlying trend is going; it is possible that the deficit may induce support for tax that would not be there in better fiscal circumstances, just at it was possible that the previous large surpluses induced support for more spending that would not have been there if higher taxes were needed to pay for it.