There is no sign in today’s Newspoll (it will be on the Newspoll website later) of Tony Abbott’s forecast problems with women voters.
On a question asking whether Abbott would be a better leader, worse leader, or about the same as leader compared to Malcolm Turnbull women were less likely than men (26%-29%) to rate Abbott as better, but much more likely to rate him about the same (46%-36%). It was men (25%) rather than women (18%) who were much more likely to rate Abbott as worse than Turnbull. Overall, 72% of women and 65% of men rate Abbott as the same as or better than Turnbull. And this is the whole Newspoll sample, so includes left-wing women.
My main test of the women-don’t-like-Abbott theory is in the 2PP voting intention, which is essentially the same as last time with no gender breakdown. But for the theory to be correct, the swing by men towards the Coalition must have been big enough to counter-act any swing against by women.
It’s too early to say for sure, but it is looking more likely that the women-don’t-like-Abbott theory was a product of a massive over-sampling of women pundits know.